Ten Bold Predictions for Book Publishing in 2012

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By Jeremy Greenfield, Editorial Director, Digital Book World, @JDGsaid

It’s been a stormy year for book publishing, with many major players in the industry making big changes. In 2011, Amazon became a publisher, more best-selling authors sprouted out of what once was the slush pile and publishing companies migrated business from print to digital at an accelerated rate.

Some of the events of 2011 were of the “you coulda seen it coming” variety – Borders closing or Random House going to the agency pricing model. Much of it, however, was shocking – think big-six publisher HarperCollins acquiring Nashville-based Christian publisher Thomas Nelson.

Now that 2011 is coming to a close, what’s on tap for 2012?

We spoke with book industry experts, observers and players to get their bold predictions on what extraordinary events await us in the coming twelve months.

Hear more insight into the future of the book business at Digital Book World Conference + Expo 2012, this January 23-25 in New York. More>>>

1. We will see more self-published best-sellers next year with an exponential rise in the number of million-selling authors.

In November of 2011, the Kindle Million Club – a list of authors who have sold over 1 million paid copies of their books on Amazon’s Kindle store – swelled to 14 with the addition of David Baldacci, Amanda Hocking and Stephenie Meyer.

“This may have serious implications for traditional publishing houses,” said Dr. Windsor Holden, research director at Juniper Research and one of the authors of Juniper’s recent report on the future of the book publishing industry. “By facilitating publishing, Amazon, Barnes & Noble and others are eroding the position of the publisher in the value chain in much the same way Apple eroded the gate-keeping role of the carriers when it introduced the app store.”

 

2. Large publishing companies will go through major restructurings, creating new positions and redundancies of all shapes and sizes.

As more of what publishers do falls outside of what publishers used to spend the vast majority of their resources doing, people who work in publishing will likely have different roles, new positions or find that they are out of a job altogether.

“In 2012, we’ve had a number of years of digital under our belt,” said Peter Balis, director of digital content sales for John Wiley & Sons, the Hoboken, NJ-based professional, academic and trade publisher. “In a challenged economy, you’re going to see some big changes.”

Some of the changes might include hiring more marketers and in-house software, e-book and app developers, and slimming down sales departments and having fewer acquiring editors, according to Mike Shatzkin, a long-time book-industry expert (and, full disclosure, partner with Digital Book World on the upcoming Digital Book World Conference and Expo in January 2012).

“Print sales are going to decline and e-book sales are going to rise and that is going to result in organizational changes,” Shatzkin said.

 

3. Amazon will come out with a larger tablet with an 8.9-inch screen and it will be priced at $299 or lower.

The seven-inch Kindle Fire tablet has burned up the sales charts, with over 1 million per week being sold, according to Amazon. Yet, there has reportedly been some user disappointment with the product, much of it centered around a too-small screen.

“If you look at the critiques that have come in on the tablet, there have been a significant amount of users who feel the device is too small to do everything they want to do,” said Rhoda Alexander, senior manager for tablet and monitor research at IHS iSuppli, an El Segundo, Calif.-based technology research unit of global research firm IHS.

But don’t count Apple out, because…

 

4. Apple will come out with a smaller iPad at a reduced price.

Apple may respond to a rash of lower-priced, seven-inch tablets that made their way to market near the end of 2012 (Kindle Fire, the Nook Tablet and the Kobo Vox, for instance). A new report from IHS iSuppli suggests as much: “Apple may reduce the pricing on the iPad 2 when the company introduces the iPad 3…in the same way that the company continued to offer the iPhone 3 when it rolled out the iPhone 4,” said the report.

“This will further reduce the price variance between the existing Apple products and the reading tablets in the marketplace today,” said Balis.

 

5. Sony will get a second life in the e-reader game when Pottermore launches in the Spring.

In June, Pottermore appeared on the Web, as if conjured by wizards at Bloomsbury Publishing, the London-based publisher of the hit Harry Potter series. Really, the site was “conjured” by Sony, Bloomsbury’s technology partner on the project.

The Potter books reportedly may be pre-loaded onto the next generation of Sony e-readers and may even be exclusive to the reader for a short period of time after the launch of the site, according to unnamed sources at Sony.

“They have a rumored three-month exclusive of some sort,” said Thad McIlroy, a Vancouver-based electronic publishing analyst who runs the site TheFutureofPublishing.com. “If it was only three days, it would be enough for seven zillion crazy Harry Potter fans to buy the device.”

6. Literary agencies will engage in a campaign to communicate the value of their services to the book industry.

One of the big debates of 2011 has been around the relevance of publishing companies. Outspoken self-published authors and some others declared large publishing companies out-of-touch and the business model under which they operate outdated. Major publishers were mum most of the year – until several weeks ago, when Hachette leaked an internal manifesto on its relevance in the marketplace. A lively back-and-forth between proponents and detractors ensued.

In the coming year, agents may be called on to do the same.

“Agents are going to become more adept at publicly discussing the value of their services,” said Ginger Clark, a literary agent with New York-based agency Curtis Brown LTD. “Our clients all know what we do for them, but unrepresented authors who are self-publishing don’t know what they’re missing.”

Related: Is Seth Godin Right About Publishing? | J.A. Konrath Responds With Advice for Publishers | Exclusive Q&A With Hachette Digital Chief Maja Thomas

 

7. Authors will become disenchanted with the rights they sign away to publishers. Shorter and more flexible copyright terms will become more attractive to authors.

At a certain point in the commercial life-cycle of a book, the author starts to make less and less money. Contracts that prevent authors from using new media tools to extend the commercial life of the intellectual property because the author no longer holds the rights will be less attractive to authors.

“As the social and reputational value of works’ presence on the web increases, authors will become more frustrated that works are tied up by copyright licenses that cease to bring them any more financial reward,” said David Weinberger, a senior researcher at Harvard’s Berkman Center for Internet & Society, an Internet research lab.

 

8. The standard e-book royalty from major publishing houses will rise next year and will escalate with increased sales.

With print royalties, authors typically get a higher percentage of the suggested retail price as more copies are sold, according to Shatzkin, the industry expert. With e-books, however, it is more often the case that authors get a flat 25% of the take, regardless of how many are sold.

“The commercial pressures of the industry will push royalty rates up and publishers will find it less onerous to pay higher rates if they’re based on performance,” said Shatzkin.

How high will they go? “Substantially” less than 50%, but up from 25%, said Shatzkin.

 

9. Standards of what an app and what a book is will change and apps will eventually be sold in the iBookstore.

With EPUB 3, the latest e-book publishing language, publishers will be able to add more interactivity and digital doo-dads than ever before to their products. This, in turn, could blur the line between e-books and book apps, which are feature-rich books that live outside the online bookstore ecosystem and already have many of the bells and whistles that EPUB 3 introduces to traditional e-books.

Furthermore, the proliferation of tablets in the marketplace will encourage publishers to experiment with both e-books and apps.

“The current publishing standards that are set – what is published in the iBookstore versus what is published in applications – will change,” said Erin Reilly, creative research director at the University of Southern California’s Annenberg Innovation Lab, an interdisciplinary research lab. “They were set too early. You’ll start seeing more openness toward the iBookstore allowing for different types of infrastructures in place for what is a book.”

 

10. More publishing companies will form in-house transmedia groups.

In April 2011, Random House launched Random House Worlds, a transmedia partnership with Los Angeles-based gaming software company THQ. Increasingly, publishing companies are looking at the intellectual property they own as extendable across more media platforms.

“All publishing companies will either have a transmedia group in-house or build that type of partnership with experts in the transmedia field,” said Reilly.

Write to Jeremy Greenfield

What are your predictions for 2012? Share them in the comments below or email them to me here.

 

 

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19 thoughts on “Ten Bold Predictions for Book Publishing in 2012

  1. Those are prediction or confirmed information? Anyway I think we shouldn’t read paper books or newspaper, magazines anymore, paper book publishing destroy our nature. We should increase using e-version of books

  2. The book distribution model of printed books will shift even more to internet ordering and home delivery. As a result of this, stocks can be reduced, and book printing will become more digital.

  3. Publishing a book, 50 Digital Team Building Games with Wiley and Sons this year May 2012 and I’ll be curious to see how it does and what works now.

  4. Thanks for the great predictions. I can see most of these coming true as the publishing world struggles through this time of change. As an idie writer of ebooks, all this is great news for me.

  5. Some great predictions — and some seem highly likely. Of course not knowing for sure is what keeps the publishing industry so “interesting” and in the state of flux it is in. Interesting times :o) Now if you’ll tell me where to get that ’50’s style crystal ball…

  6. I definitely can see most of these predictions coming true. I also like #1, but the one challenge I see is the flood of new indie authors, so we all have to step up our game to stand out. I also expect to see more channels opening up for ebook distribution.

  7. Re: #1, what people seem to politely ignore is that of those 14 million-club authors, the overwhelming percentage created their reps in traditional publishing, where there is gatekeeping and quality control — and James W. Lewis nailed it: how do the millions of indie self-publishers rushing to the market differentiate and build market share? It’s a problem that’s far from easy to solve.

  8. Changes by the big 6 need to happen, raising all the ebook prices in 2011 wasn’t good for either them or authors.

    An informed blog from the likes of J.A Konrath clearly state that what needs to happen is for potential authors to wake up and demand more from a publishing contract.

    Ebook prices need to be lowered, and authors deserve more of the take. Time limits need to be made and the practice of dropping authors just because they also self publish needs to be stopped. How do you compete with yourself?? If they are given a book for consideration and they turn it down, you should be able to do whatever you want with it. I

    ‘m hoping writers get better advice and have someone look over their contract before they ever sign on the dotted line.

    • As ebook readers become more common we will see more and more ebook buyers complain about ebook pricing from the big 6 publishers and the lack of ability to share purchased ebooks. Buyers compare the price of an ebook with lowest selling price of the physical book (with free shipping!) and just don’t understand why the ebook isn’t much lower priced. The fact that buying an ebook means you’ve only bought the limited right to read it, while you’re paying nearly as much as the physical book will start to be understood and not well accepted. Publishers may wind up with an image problem. Book buyers are certainly developing new shopping habits as they find indie books and new favorite authors. Increased piracty may result if the big 6 publishers insist on their unpopular pricing strategies.

  9. 2012 will be the year of the illustrated eBook. The public will embrace their tablet devices for magazines and visual inspiration. The eVersion will be the prefered choice as long as the publisher makes use proper use of the multi- medium.

    • I couldn’t agree more. I was incredibly disappointed in the Steve Jobs ebook. I read it on my iPad and was hoping to have many color pictures I could pinch and enlarge, audio clips, embedded documents and video clips. Instead it was a regular book, just like the printed book, for which I paid nearly as much for. If enhanced content couldn’t be used for this book, then when? And paying $15.00 for an ebook I don’t even own, with no enhancement over the printed book? Makes me want to consider piracy.

  10. I highly double apple will release a smaller iPad, there is a rumor that the iphone5 will be larger then the current, maybe thats the good choice? Who would want a smaller iPad…just use your iPhone or iPod right?

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