How Many Kindles Have Really Been Sold?
By Michael Mace, Principal, Rubicon Consulting
Although a lot of people are excited about ebooks, it’s very difficult to get hard information on how the market for them is growing. We don’t even know how many Kindles Amazon has sold, let alone more detailed specifics on the market.
So I was very happy Wednesday when the Book Industry Study Group (BISG) gave details from its recent survey of ebook adoption in the US. The survey was first revealed in January [ed: at the 2010 Digital Book World Conference], but the press release was very sketchy and sometimes confusing. In its presentation at the Tools of Change conference, the BISG gave much more details on the results.
[NOTE: DBW Members can listen to the full presentation from the January release at Digital Book World here.]
My highlights from the presentation:
Ebook usage is growing fast, but it’s still small.
Roughly 2% of American book buyers over age 13 are active ebook users, meaning they obtained an ebook or a reader device in the last year. About half of those were first-time ebook buyers, so the usage of ebooks has probably roughly doubled in the last year. BISG is doing multiple waves in the survey, and says it found a 25% increase in ebook usage just over the holiday season, so it was a pretty good Christmas (and Hanukkah) for ebooks.
The most-used device for reading an ebook is a personal computer (47%); Amazon Kindle is number two (32%), followed by Apple’s iPhone and iPod Touch (21%).
Either there’s something wrong with the numbers, or Amazon hasn’t sold quite as many Kindles as some people think.
What does it mean?
PC leadership is no surprise. There are so many PCs in the US that even a small percentage of PC users reading ebooks will swamp everything else. BISG said that the PC share of ebook reading is declining as other devices grow, also what I would have expected. Apple is closer to Kindle than you might expect, but…
A tidbit that jumped out at me was Apple’s share of ebook usage. Kindle has gotten all the attention, but Apple has about 2/3 the share of Amazon in ebook usage without even trying.
However, before we set off another round of “Apple uber alles” on the web, there are several big caveats:
–BISG didn’t report on the number of books bought per platform. Based on my experience at Palm (which had an active e-reading community), I suspect that a lot of those iPhone book readers are pretty casual, buying a few books or publications to kill time when they are bored. I believe Kindle users are probably much more active readers.
(For comparison, about 4% of the Palm OS users in the US were reading ebooks at least occasionally in 2002. That total rose to about 8-10% if you included the Bible — it was by far the most popular ebook. That amounts to about 1.5-2 million ebook users on Palm OS alone.)
–Apple and Kindle are also different demographically. After the presentation, BISG told me that Kindle readers are older and more likely to be female compared to Apple readers. What we may be seeing is that if someone already carries an iPhone or iPod Touch, they’re less likely to invest in yet another device just to read on it. Or maybe younger people just find it easier to read on a tiny screen? Either way, I think it’s pleasant that Apple and Kindle are reaching somewhat different audiences rather than just stepping on each other.
–The iPhone/iPod Touch installed base is a lot bigger than Kindle’s. So as is the case with PCs, even relatively low ebook usage on the iPhone will add up to a lot of users.
How many Kindles are really in use?
As far as I can tell, Amazon hasn’t released any Kindle device sales figures, other than a quote referring to “millions” of users. Several analysts have jumped on the use of the plural as evidence that at least two million Kindles have been sold. But I think the BISG survey doesn’t support that.
Here’s my math:
–About 2% of book buyers have ebooks and/or ebook devices.
–About a third of them have Kindles (that’s 0.67% of active book buyers).
–If 0.67% of book buyers in the US is two million people, then there are 300 million active book buyers in the US. That is the entire US population, including infants and people who don’t like books. I don’t know what the base of active book buyers is in the US, but my guess is it’s not over 200 million, meaning the installed base of Kindles would be about 1.3 million.
It’s tricky to play with survey results when the percentages are this small — the margins of error become very significant. But for now I think the BISG survey raises some questions, and I’m not willing to accept the two million figure for the Kindle installed base without some more rigorous evidence to support it.
[This article was originally published on the Mobile Opportunity blog and has been reprinted here with the permission of Mr. Mace. Click through for more tidbits and analysis.]
Michael Mace is a 20-year veteran of some of the tech industry’s toughest battles, and widely regarded as a strategist who also does tactics, translating big ideas into practical implementation plans. He is a Principal at Rubicon Consulting.